Thanks for the detailed answer SkyeFire. I was not expecting to get so much out of this forum! This is great.
I’ll try my luck and throw another salvo of questions your way. Again, everyone’s welcome and don’t hesitate to tell me if I’m asking the wrong questions and should rather be thinking about X Y Z rather than A B C.
I have two broad fields of enquiry at this point: 1) dynamics that prompt automation with traditional ‘dogs’ as you call them, and 2) rapid expansion of the industry because of cobots.
Traditional dogs
1) How do you control a robot arm exactly? I know Fanuc makes CNCs but these are for mills lathes etc. Does each robot arm manufacturer make its own operating system, or could I control an ABB arm with Fanuc controllers?
2) Is there a brand that, regardless of geography, would be considered simpler to install, use and repair?
3) Is there a Big Four that is generally cheaper than the other 3?
4) Surveys I read indicate the main obstacles to installing robots are cost and ease of use (training, installation etc), but that doesn’t explain why some countries are lot more automated than others. Why is it that Germany has a higher ‘robot density’ in general industry (excluding automotive) than the US? Is it just because it makes more stuff? (btw, is robot density at all a good way to think about this?)
5) Same question for different industries. Obviously automotive is wayyy higher than any other industry I can find. Is there something that makes this industry more automatable than others? What are characteristics I should be looking out for to understand why industries have automated and why new industries might automate in the future?
6) Short follow-up from 5. Does new automation usually come because new robots can do more things or because people gradually become too expensive (in this latter case, the tech of the robots would already be somewhat mature)?
Cobot theme
Here are some things I take away from your previous post
- Cobots are much cheaper overall because of usability (little training needed) and they don’t need a pen
- Cobots are probably not going to replace big dogs, but smart tech will rather creep upwards
- New entrants like UR and Rethink are targeting ‘robot virgins’, who are indifferent to brands
- Big 4 have been pursuing different goals
Here are my questions
1) Do you see cobots becoming a large market, possibly comparable to bigger dogs? If so, would most applications come from new customers or industries already using robots? In other words, which do you perceive as most automatable and also most willing to automate?
2) As you hinted earlier, no company can really claim a technology supremacy. Buying a Nachi or ABB usually comes down to path dependency and support networks. Should we expect this to change with cobots? In other words, is the tech here a lot more important? I guess this goes back to asking "what do customers want": new exciting robots or simple, reliable.
3) If cobot tech starts creeping upwards, could we imagine a scenario where UR and Rethink eventually steal Big 4 sales because their technology is better? I’m thinking of your Chrysler ‘biting the dust’ example here. Or conversely, is there a case to be made for Big 4 players waking up to the need for technology that will eventually be a part of the entire product line? I am thinking Fanuc Green robots or KUKA LBR iiwa. I know any answer can only be speculative but I am interesting in hearing how you think, in light of the growth opportunities from question 1, the industry will evolve. Will the Big Four have an IBM moment where their focus on mainframes makes them incapable of competing against PC makers, or is the progress more incremental and thus puts a Big 4 at an advantage (brand, repair network, trained users etc)? Or are both coexisting peacefully? Fanuc’s CR-35iA has a promo video showing it helping an auto worker, not a restaurant chef.